Polymarket, a decentralized platform for prediction markets, has proven profitable for only 12.7% of user wallets, according to fresh data. This blockchain-powered betting platform lets cryptocurrency users wager on real-world events, from political elections to global conflicts. However, the odds have not been in favor of most traders.
Data from Layerhub, an on-chain analytics tool, shows that of the 171,113 wallets active on Polymarket, a staggering 87.3%, or 149,383 wallets, failed to turn a profit. Only 21,730 wallets reported positive gains.
Small Wins for the Few
Among those who did make a profit, only 2,138 wallets managed to earn more than $1,000. The majority of profitable wallets saw gains below $100. A middle segment, about 7,400 wallets, reported profits between $100 and $1,000, as indicated in the platform’s data.
High Stakes, Few Wins for Most Polymarket Users
Polymarket has facilitated over 10.8 million betting trades so far, with daily volumes exceeding 300,000 trades from October 6 to 8. Major global events, such as ongoing international conflicts and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, have driven the recent surge in activity.
It’s essential to understand that not all wallets on the platform represent individual traders. Some users manage multiple wallets to diversify their bets and maximize profit opportunities.
Approximately 25,000 wallets have placed more than 50 trades, while 32,000 wallets have been involved in 20 to 50 trades. Interestingly, a significant portion — nearly 58,000 wallets — participated in only one to five trades, reflecting that most users make only a few high-risk bets.
Crypto Betting Interest Remains Strong
As of October 9, Polymarket’s open interest, which refers to the total value of futures contracts held at the end of a trading day, reached $161.1 million. This continued activity highlights the enduring interest in crypto gambling, even as the majority of users fail to make substantial profits.