Ethereum’s chances of hitting the much-anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024 appear slim, according to insights from the on-chain options protocol Derive. Despite promising spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows hinting at a potential “supply-side crunch,” the probability of Ethereum reaching the target has significantly decreased.
Sean Dawson, the head of research at Derive, highlighted in a market report on Dec. 10 that ETH’s likelihood of achieving $5,000 by Dec. 27 once peaked at 16%, but has now fallen to just over 8%. Based on CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum would require a 37% increase from its current price to meet this ambitious milestone.
However, not all opinions align with this cautious stance. On Dec. 10, a pseudonymous crypto trader known as CoinMamba expressed optimism on X, suggesting that ETH could still reach the $5,000 goal before the year concludes.
Adding to the optimistic outlook, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner noted the $305 million daily inflow into Ether ETFs on Dec. 10, viewing it as evidence of an imminent supply shortage. Echoing this sentiment, Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano commented that traditional financial institutions are “snapping up cheap ETH,” with Farside data revealing that the Fidelity Ethereum Fund alone accounted for $202.2 million of these inflows.
Prominent voices in the crypto space also weighed in on Ethereum’s price potential. On Dec. 9, Ryan Adams, host of the Bankless podcast, suggested that ETH might set a new all-time high within a week. The cryptocurrency’s current record, established in November 2021, stands at $4,878.
Meanwhile, crypto trader Pentoshi highlighted ETH’s recent structural shifts in a Dec. 9 post. They noted that Ethereum had achieved its highest weekly close of the year and suggested that a retest of its all-time high could occur sooner than anticipated.
In conclusion, Ethereum’s outlook remains uncertain. While some traders are optimistic about a potential price surge, data-driven analysis points to a more cautious trajectory for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.